The one-month, two-year, and three-year rates remained the same, while all other rates fell in April. The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its widening streak of four months. The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month and it shared the lowest rate on multiple occasions. There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.
Findings
- The one-month, two-year, and three-year rates remained unchanged, while all other rates fell in April.
- The one-month, two-year, and three-year rates had the best absolute performance with a 0.00 point change.
- On a relative basis, the one-month, two-year, and three-year rates had the best performance with a 0.00 percent change.
- The 20-year rate had the worst absolute performance with a -0.12 point change.
- On a relative basis, the three-month rate had the worst performance with a -66.67 percent change.
- The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month. The three-month bill held the lowest rate on one occasion, and the one-month and the three-month rates shared the lowest rate on several occasions.
- The yield curve narrowed from 2.40 to 2.29.
Caveats
- As always, past performance is not indicative of future results.
- All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
Details
The breadth of the yield curve narrowed over the month from a range of 2.40 to a range of 2.29. The widest range was 2.34 which was hit on April 7 and the narrowest 2.21 which was hit on April 15. The last time the yield curve was this wide was on March 31, 2021 when it hit a range of 2.40.
The thirty-year bond held the highest rate throughout the month. It steadily dropped throughout the month. Its highest rate for the month was 2.36 which was hit on April 5 and its lowest rate for the month was 2.23 which was hit on April 15. This month's high of 2.36 was last matched on March 31, 2021 when it hit 2.41.
The one-month bill did not hold the lowest rate throughout the month. The three-month bill held the lowest rate on one occasion and the one-month and three-month rates shared the lowest rate on several sessions. The one-month did not hit a new 12-month high extending its streak of no new 12-month highs to 25 months.
Sources
"Treasury Constant Maturity," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, accessed May 5, 2021, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/115.