EU and US GDP Growth Rate by State, Fourth Quarter 2020

Apr 29, 2021
Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate in EU and US States

The chart above shows the annualized nominal gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly growth rate when the GDP is priced in US dollars in each EU and US state as of the fourth quarter of 2020 and the growth rate from one year prior.  Austria was the only state to contract over the previous quarter.

Findings

  • The difference between the state with the largest annualized quarterly growth rate, Romania, and the state with the smallest, Austria, is 9.86 percentage points.
  • The difference between the state with the largest year-over-year growth rate, Luxembourg, and the state with the smallest, Wyoming, is 21.04 percentage points.
  • The median annualized quarterly growth rate in the 28 EU states is 2.69% and the mean 2.87%.  The median year-over-year growth rate in the 28 EU states is 3.58% and the mean 4.02%.
  • The median annualized quarterly growth rate in the 50 US states is 1.58% and the mean 1.69%.  The median year-over-year growth rate in the 50 US states is -0.88% and the mean -1.20%.
  • The median annualized quarterly growth rate in the 78 EU and US states is 1.73% and the mean 2.12%.  The median year-over-year growth rate in the 78 EU and US states is -0.06% and the mean 0.68%.
  • Of the 28 states, 57 (9 from the EU, 48 from the US) grew faster over the previous quarter than they did over the same quarter last year, zero (0 EU, 0 US) saw the same growth over both time periods, and 21 (19 EU, 2 US) grew slower over the previous quarter than they did over the same quarter last year.
  • Some EU gains in GDP growth rate are attributed to currency rate fluctuations.

Caveats

  • Data is from the fourth quarter of 2019, the third quarter of 2020, and the fourth quarter of 2020.
  • The data is seasonally and calendar adjusted in current dollars except for Slovakia which is only seasonally adjusted in current dollars.
  • Euros are converted to dollars at an average exchange rate of 1.11 for the fourth quarter of 2019, 1.17 for the third quarter of 2020, and 1.19 for the fourth quarter of 2020 according to historic rates listed at the Federal Reserve (see source link below).
  • US data comes in an annualized format which the EU does not, thus EU data is annualized by multiplying the quarterly figure by four.
  • US growth rates may differ from those provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as the BEA's growth rates are based on chained dollars in conjunction with the chain index or the quality index for real GDP.  The growth rates listed here are based on nominal GDP.
  • All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.

Details

Austria had the worst performance over the previous quarter with an annualized rate of -0.86%.  Romania had the best performance with an annualized rate of 9.00%.

Year over year, Wyoming had the worst performance with an annualized rate of -9.10% while Luxembourg had the best performance with an annualized rate of 11.94%.

Ireland saw the worst change in its growth rate between its year-over-year growth and its annualized quarterly growth slowing its rate by 8.60 percentage points.  Wyoming had the best change in its growth rate between its year-over-year growth and its annualized quarterly growth raising its rate by 12.03 percentage points.

Alaska (from 75th best growth rate over the same quarter last year to the 11th best growth rate over the previous quarter) and Wyoming (from 78th to 14th) rose 64 spots.  Conversely, Ireland (from 3rd to 74th) fell 71 spots.  Four states had growth rates in the top five both over the same quarter last year and over the previous quarter: Romania (4th highest year-over-year, 1st highest quarterly), Bulgaria (5th highest year-over-year, 3rd highest quarterly), Luxembourg (1st highest year-over-year, 4th highest quarterly), and Sweden (2nd highest year-over-year, 5th highest quarterly).  Two states had growth rates in the bottom ten (zero in the bottom five) both over the same quarter last year and over the previous quarter: Hawaii (77th highest year-over-year, 69th highest quarterly) and Michigan (69th highest year-over-year, 74th highest quarterly).

Sources

Eurostat.  2021.  "GDP and Main Components."  Accessed March 31, 2021.  https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-406779_QID_-2BC5CE0A_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;UNIT,L,Z,0;S_ADJ,L,Z,1;NA_ITEM,L,Z,2;INDICATORS,C,Z,3;&zSelection=DS-406779UNIT,CP_MEUR;DS-406779INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-406779NA_ITEM,B1GQ;DS-406779S_ADJ,SCA;&rankName1=UNIT_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=NA-ITEM_1_2_-1_2&rankName4=S-ADJ_1_2_-1_2&rankName5=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName6=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.

Eurostat.  2017.  "Population on 1 January by Age Groups and Sex - Functional Urban Areas."  Accessed December 11, 2017.  http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=urb_lpop1&lang=en.

Federal Reserve.  2021.  "Foreign Exchange Rates."  Accessed March 31, 2021.  https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g5/.

Office for National Statistics.  2021.  "Gross Domestic Product at market prices: Current price: Seasonally adjusted £m - Office for National Statistics."  Accessed March 31, 2021.  https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ybha/ukea.

US Bureau of Economic Analysis.  2021.  "GDP by State."  Accessed March 30, 2021.  https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gdp-state.

United States Census Bureau.  September 2012.  "United States Summary: 2010: Population and Housing Unit Counts."  Accessed January 23, 2018.  https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/cph-2-1.pdf.