EU Long-Term Interest Rates, June 2019

Aug 8, 2019
Long-Term Interest Rates in EU States

The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of June 2019, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior.  Five states have a negative interest rate.

Findings

  • The difference (spread) between the state with the lowest long-term interest rate, Germany, and the state with the highest, Romania, is 4.90 percentage points (down from 5.06 last month and up from 4.64 last year).  Germany and Romania were the states with the lowest and highest rates respectively last month while Lithuania and Romania had the lowest and highest rates respectively last year.
  • The median long-term interest rate in the 28 EU states is 0.32 (down from 0.50 the previous month and down from 0.99 last year) and the mean 0.82 (down from 1.07 the previous month and down from 1.55 last year).
  • One state did not see a change in its long-term interest rate from the previous month, 26 saw their rate decrease, and zero states saw their rate increase.
  • One state did not see a change in its long-term interest rate from last year, 26 saw their rate decrease, and zero states saw their rate increase.

Caveats

  • Data is from June 2019, May 2019, and June 2018.
  • Estonia does not currently issue any sovereign debt that complies with the definition of long-term interest rates for convergence purposes and no suitable proxy indicator has been identified, therefore there is no data available for Estonia.
  • All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.

Details

Greece saw its rate drop the most over the previous month dropping 0.70 percentage points.  Lithuania was at the other end of the spectrum as its rate remained unchanged.  Year over year, Cyprus saw its rate drop the most with a 1.79 percentage point drop while Lithuania once again remained unchanged and was the only state whose rate did not fall.

Belgium (from 11th lowest rate to 9th lowest rate) and Ireland (from 14th to 12th) went up two spots each over the course of the month.  Denmark (from 3rd to 2nd), the Netherlands (from 5th to 4th), Slovakia (from 12th to 11th), Portugal (from 18th to 17th), Cyprus (from 20th to 19th), and Greece (from 26th to 25th) each rose one spot over the month.  Conversely, Lithuania (from 9th to 13th) dropped the most even though its rate stayed steady by being bested by four states over the course of the month.  Luxembourg (from 2nd to 3rd), Bulgaria (from 13th to 14th), Malta (from 17th to 18th), the United Kingdom (from 19th to 20th), and Hungary (from 25th to 26th) were each bested by one state.

Over the course of the year, Slovakia (from 15th lowest rate to 11th lowest rate) rose the most besting four states.  Slovenia (from 13th to 10th) and Cyprus (from 22nd to 19th) each bested three states.  The Netherlands (from 6th to 4th), Austria (from 8th to 6th), and Portugal (from 19th to 17th) each bested two states, while Germany, Denmark, Luxembourg, Sweden, France, Belgium, Spain, and Greece each bested one.  On the flip side, Lithuania (from 1st to 13th) was bested by 12 states.  the United Kingdom (from 16th to 20th) was bested by four, Latvia (12th to 15th) by three, Czechia (from 20th to 22nd) by two, and Ireland, Bulgaria, Malta, and Hungary were each bested by one.

For reference, the United States' ten-year note was at 2.91% in June 2018, 2.39% in May 2019, and 2.07% in June 2019, meaning that only Italy, Poland, Greece, Hungary, and Romania have higher rates than the US.  Japan's ten-year rate was at 0.04% in June 2018, -0.06% in May 2019, and -0.13% in June 2019 being bested only by Germany, Denmark, and Luxembourg.

Data

StateJune 2018May 2019June 2019
Austria0.710.240.03
Belgium0.790.410.15
Bulgaria0.990.480.32
Croatia2.21.691.36
Cyprus2.611.340.82
Czechia2.141.861.58
Denmark0.410.04-0.22
Finland0.630.250.05
France0.750.30.08
Germany0.33-0.13-0.31
Greece4.393.372.67
Hungary3.373.192.74
Ireland0.920.50.27
Italy2.742.642.28
Latvia0.930.510.33
Lithuania0.310.310.31
Luxembourg0.540.02-0.16
Malta1.370.950.73
Netherlands0.570.11-0.09
Poland3.212.722.35
Portugal1.871.020.59
Romania4.954.934.59
Slovakia1.010.450.25
Slovenia0.990.380.19
Spain1.370.870.5
Sweden0.550.07-0.09
United Kingdom1.321.060.84

Sources

Eurostat.  2019.  "EMU Convergence Criterion Series - Monthly Data."  Accessed August 7, 2019.  https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-055774_QID_-2679B5AF_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;INT_RT,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-055774INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-055774INT_RT,MCBY;&rankName1=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INT-RT_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.

Eurostat.  2019.  "Government Bond Yields, Ten Years' Maturity - Monthly Data."  Accessed August 5, 2019.  https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-054880_QID_79B98069_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;MATURITY,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-054880INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-054880MATURITY,Y10;&rankName1=MATURITY_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.

Filed under: Economic Data