The Fiscal Cliff Review


This week "The McLaughlin Group" discussed the fiscal cliff deal, the Second Amendment, and Sandy aid.  The discussion revealed how it was the wealthy that won out again in the fiscal cliff negotiations.

Lovely.  Economic policy should not be based on the Dow Jones' reaction the next day.

Here is Eleanor saying what should have been reported by the media a long time ago.  Both parties always come together in the end when their donors demand they do.

Take from the rich a bit, but give back to the rich more.  Feel a little cheated?

Sounds like a game.  A rigged game.  A rigged game where wealthy people win and everyone else loses.

There was no time left for predictions this week.  Previously Tim Carney predicted that "The lame duck Congress will avert the fiscal cliff only by kicking the can down the road."  He was correct.

Mort Zuckerman predicted that "The decline of the second quarter GDP to 1.2 percent means we're going to have very poor economic numbers and unemployment numbers for the rest of this year."  He was correct.

Pat Buchanan predicted that "Fiscal cliff deal will happen and the 35 percent will be maintained and the Republicans will give up deductions and exemptions."  Partial.  The deal happened but none of the other stuff.  That same week Mort said that the "The Europeans are continuing to press down the value of the euro in order to expand their exports to the United States and diminish US exports to Europe."  They may be trying to, but the euro has gone up ever since he said that.  And all downward pressure on the euro since then has come from our Federal Reserve.

Eleanor Clift predicted that the President would nominate Susan Rice; Pat, Susan Ferrechio, Paul Glastris, and John McLaughlin predicted the opposite.  Eleanor was wrong, the others were right.

Pat predicted that "Obama will have more problems with the Democrats in getting a deal than he will with the Republicans."  Partially correct.  He did get pressure from the progressive wing at the early stages of the negotiations, but later on it was the Republicans that gave him more trouble.

John predicted that "President Obama will nominate John Kerry to be secretary of state."  Correct.

Eleanor predicted that "The deal to avoid fiscal cliff will be cut the week between Christmas and New Year's Day."  Correct.  Pat said that Detroit would go into bankruptcy before the end of the year.  Wrong.  Ryan Grim predicted that we will get a deal right after New Year's Day.  Correct.

Mort predicted that "There will be an agreement between the Congress and the President of $1 trillion in tax increases and $1 trillion in cuts in spending."  Wrong.

Panelist Prediction Correct Wrong Partially Right Not Yet Proven Percent Correct
Ryan Grim 1 0 0 0 100
Michelle Bernard 1 0 0 2 100
Paul Glastris 1 0 1 0 75
Susan Ferrechio 1 0 1 3 75
Tim Carney 1 0 3 0 62.50
Eleanor Clift 7 5 3 3 56.67
Pat Buchanan 5 4 4 4 53.85
John McLaughlin 4 4 4 8 50
Mort Zuckerman 4 4 2 8 50
Rich Lowry 0 0 2 1 50
Clarence Page 1 2 4 2 42.86

The show in its entirety:

Image courtesy of Kate Ter Haar.



Profile photo of The Livid LibrarianThe Livid Librarian
January 7th, 2013  1:19 PM

It seems as the more predictions they make the more likely they are to straddle 50%.