Survivor Probabilities and Predictions: Final Tribal Council

Survivor: Cagayan ends tonight.  This social experiment pitting brains against brawn against beauty has shown us all that beauty never lasts and in the end it's a battle between brains and brawn.  Brawn was strong in the beginning, but as brawn aged, it slowly withered away leaving us with two brawns and two brains.  It was the beginning of the season when chess genius/young lad Spencer told Kasstastrophe and Tasha that the three of them would make it to the end, they would just need to go through two entire tribes to do it.  Well, here we are as close to the end as you can get and Kasstastrophe and Spencer Kasstrated beauty and just have two brawns standing before them.  Will brains come out on top?

The Path to Final Tribal Council

We went into the Stocking Blue laboratories (a television and a lot of free time) to try and predict who will win Survivor: Cagayan.  Who will make it to final two, and then who will get the jury's votes.  We take a look at past performances at challenges, interactions between castaways, and their confessionals and have come up with the definitive guide to predicting Survivor: Cagayan's victor.  Our first ever Survivor probabilities and predictions!  First, let's take a look at the odds of making it to final three and final two for the remaining four castaways.

Stony Baloney

Survivor Tony

Both of the final two immunity challenges involve puzzles that always seem to puzzle Stony.  His hidden idols are useless, but seeing as he told the others they can't vote for him in the next round, and assuming that no one catches wind of yet another Stony lie, he makes it to final three.  This is when things get tricky for Stony.  The last immunity challenge may be the maze in the above video.  After the maze is completed one needs to place gears in the appropriate order so that they all connect.  Likelihood of Stony winning that is very low.  So Stony gets through the first tribal council but making it past the second one is going to be difficult if he doesn't win immunity.  Why?

If Spencer wins the second immunity, he takes Kass.  If Kass wins the second immunity, she takes Stony.  Whoosh?  Well, this is where things get tricky.  Whoever talks to Whoosh last before tribal council will have placed the last thought in Whoosh's head, and he will go with that.  So if Whoosh wins everyone has an equal shot at joining him at final tribal.  So Stony needs either Kass or Whoosh to win final immunity (with a Whoosh win requiring Stony to place a thought in Whoosh's head) to get to the final two.

Probability of Stony making it to final three: 99%

Probability of Stony making it to final two: 37.5%

Spencer

Survivor Spencer

Spencer has proven to be able to win immunity challenges, particularly ones that involve puzzles.  The only time he didn't win a puzzle was when he was teamed up with Sarah in episode five and went up against LJ (puzzle master) and Whoosh.  Whoosh.  He lost a puzzle challenge to Whoosh!  So anything is possible, even though Whoosh was teamed up with LJ.  The previews show Stony in the lead on the first immunity challenge.  Spencer is second.  We all know Stony will mess up the puzzle, so it looks like the first immunity challenge belongs to Spencer, barring a miracle from the other three players.  If Spencer does not win immunity, he is out, no matter who else wins immunity.

Assuming Spencer makes it to the final three, things get extremely difficult for him.  We know everyone wants Kass in final two.  If Kass wins immunity she will pick Stony.  If Stony wins, he picks Kass.  If Whoosh wins, Spencer may have a chance if he can convince him to bring him, but you never know with Whoosh.  So the only way for Spencer to make it to final two is by winning immunity.  The last immunity challenge is a maze and some kind of gear puzzle.  We haven't seen any of the contestants deal with gears, which is a fundamentally different kind of puzzle than the ones we've seen so far, but his ability to think things through gives him an advantage over the others.  Where his odds fall is if he doesn't win, and then nobody wants to go to final two with him.

Probability of Spencer making it to final three: 75%

Probability of Spencer making it to final two: 50%

Whoosh

Survivor Woo

If Spencer wins the first immunity, Stony and Kasstastrophe are voting Whoosh out.  Spencer is likely to go along as Whoosh has been his biggest challenger in challenges this season.  Whoosh solving a puzzle by himself seems pretty far fetched particularly when the previews show him at best behind Stony and Spencer.  Whoosh has to hope for a Stony win or some complete miracle by himself or Kass.  Good luck Whoosh.

Assuming Whoosh makes it past all that, all he has to do is win immunity, which most likely would be against Stony and Kass.  This is doable.  So Whoosh's path to final two means winning both immunity challenges.

Probability of Whoosh making it to final three: 26%

Probability of Whoosh making it to final two: 25%

Kasstastrophe

Survivor Kass

Kasstastrophe is in a unique position.  Everybody wants to be in final tribal against her.  Everybody.  Kass does not need to win any immunity challenges and she will still be in the final tribal council, unless any of the other three lose their minds.  The only way Kass doesn't make it to final two is if Whoosh wins final immunity and the other contestant places a thought in Whoosh's head.

Probability of Kasstastrophe making it to final three: 100%

Probability of Kasstastrophe making it to final two: 87.5%

In the Mind of the Jury

So there's making it to the final two, and then there's the jury.  How will they vote?  Let's take a look at their body language and other clues at previous tribal councils.  Jurors are listed in the order they joined the jury.

Good Cop Sarah

Survivor Sarah

Sarah had a relationship with Stony that went sour.  Will she vote for her fellow cop, or will she do what her best friend on the jury (Morgan) will do and vote for Spencer.  Whoosh gets points for being on the brawn tribe with her, and there is no way she'll vote for Kass who was the reason she got voted out.

Kass vs. Spencer: Spencer 100%, Kass 0%
Kass vs. Stony: Stony 100%, Kass 0%
Kass vs. Whoosh: Whoosh 100%, Kass 0%
Spencer vs. Stony: Spencer 75%, Stony 25%
Spencer vs. Whoosh: Spencer 90%, Whoosh 10%
Stony vs. Whoosh: Stony 80%, Whoosh 20%

Morgan

Survivor Morgan

If Spencer is in the final two, Morgan votes for Spencer.  She's been clapping and cheering him on throughout all the tribal councils.  She is not voting for Kass or Stony.  Things get complicated if it's those two in final tribal council.  One would think Stony, but every time he's opened his mouth he's exposed what a duplicitous game he's played, particularly last week when Kass got under his skin.  Kass is likely to make an argument Stony can't match, forcing Morgan to do the unthinkable.

Kass vs. Spencer: Spencer 100%, Kass 0%
Kass vs. Stony: Kass 60%, Stony 40%
Kass vs. Whoosh: Whoosh 100%, Kass 0%
Spencer vs. Stony: Spencer 100%, Stony 0%
Spencer vs. Whoosh: Spencer 100%, Whoosh 0%
Stony vs. Whoosh: Whoosh 100%, Stony 0%

LJ

Survivor LJ

LJ has been the hardest juror to read.  He may appreciate the game Stony played even if it got LJ eliminated.  He may appreciate the move Kass made and the fact that she knows how to get under Stony's skin.  Or perhaps he will appreciate Spencer's come from behind win.  LJ's vote could go either way and it may be swayed by the arguments presented by each castaway at final tribal council.

Kass vs. Spencer: Spencer 50%, Kass 50%
Kass vs. Stony: Stony 50%, Kass 50%
Kass vs. Whoosh: Kass 60%, Whoosh 40%
Spencer vs. Stony: Spencer 50%, Stony 50%
Spencer vs. Whoosh: Spencer 60%, Whoosh 40%
Stony vs. Whoosh: Stony 50%, Whoosh 50%

Jeremiah

Survivor Jeremiah

Jeremiah and Spencer formed an alliance on the island, so if Spencer is in there, Jeremiah is likely to vote Spencer.  Otherwise, it's a toss up.  Remember, Kass is likely to make a better argument than either Stony or Whoosh.  Even though she is not liked, which she is aware of, she can convince jurors that her strategy has to be respected.

Kass vs. Spencer: Spencer 100%, Kass 0%
Kass vs. Stony: Stony 50%, Kass 50%
Kass vs. Whoosh: Whoosh 50%, Kass 50%
Spencer vs. Stony: Spencer 100%, Stony 0%
Spencer vs. Whoosh: Spencer 100%, Whoosh 0%
Stony vs. Whoosh: Stony 80%, Whoosh 20%

Jefra

Survivor Jefra

Jefra was the last beauty standing.  Her alliance of Stony and Whoosh blindsided her.  Kass stuck with her and as far as we know never got into it with her.  Spencer may get points for being an underdog.

Kass vs. Spencer: Spencer 50%, Kass 50%
Kass vs. Stony: Kass 70%, Stony 30%
Kass vs. Whoosh: Kass 100%, Whoosh 0%
Spencer vs. Stony: Spencer 65%, Stony 35%
Spencer vs. Whoosh: Spencer 90%, Whoosh 10%
Stony vs. Whoosh: Stony 70%, Whoosh 30%

Tasha

Survivor Tasha

It would seem like Tasha, from the brains tribe, would vote for a brain.  But it's hard to imagine her voting for Kass.  Most likely, her votes will either go to Spencer or Stony.

Kass vs. Spencer: Spencer 100%, Kass 0%
Kass vs. Stony: Stony 100%, Kass 0%
Kass vs. Whoosh: Whoosh 100%, Kass 0%
Spencer vs. Stony: Spencer 75%, Stony 25%
Spencer vs. Whoosh: Spencer 90%, Whoosh 10%
Stony vs. Whoosh: Stony 80%, Whoosh 20%

Trisha

Survivor Trish

Stony's loyal ally, who he blindsided.  Will she vote her alliance or will she be pissed.  Hard to tell, we haven't seen her in tribal yet.  She definitely won't be voting for Kass though.  She's been very critical of Whoosh's sneakiness, so it's likely he won't get a vote either.

Kass vs. Spencer: Spencer 100%, Kass 0%
Kass vs. Stony: Stony 100%, Kass 0%
Kass vs. Whoosh: Whoosh 100%, Kass 0%
Spencer vs. Stony: Spencer 50%, Stony 50%
Spencer vs. Whoosh: Spencer 100%, Whoosh 0%
Stony vs. Whoosh: Stony 100%, Whoosh 0%

Potential Juror Whoosh

Survivor Woo

Whoosh will vote for whoever the last person to put a thought in his head is.

Kass vs. Spencer: Kass 50%, Spencer 50%
Kass vs. Stony: Kass 50%, Stony 50%
Spencer vs. Stony: Spencer 50%, Stony 50%

Potential Juror Spencer

Survivor Spencer

Spencer is likely to vote very rationally.  He knows this was an uphill battle all along.  The fact that he got as far as he did may be enough reward for him.  He is likely to vote for whoever he thinks played the better game strategically and tactically.  He has said that Stony plays hard but not well, and he has said that he appreciates big moves which may mean a vote for Kass.  If Kass makes the better argument against Stony she may well just get his vote.

Kass vs. Stony: Kass 80%, Stony 20%
Kass vs. Whoosh: Kass 100%, Whoosh 0%
Stony vs. Whoosh: Stony 100%, Whoosh 0%

Potential Juror Stony

Survivor Tony

Stony would be so pissed to be on the jury, but then at least his paranoia will finally ebb a little bit.  So he may be thinking a little differently than he's been thinking while on the island.  Stony has shown an appreciation for people that "deserve to be on the island."  That would mean Whoosh isn't getting his vote.  Then again Whoosh was his most loyal ally.  It all goes down to whether Stony chooses to vote based on loyalty or on who he thinks deserves to win.

Kass vs. Spencer: Kass 50%, Spencer 50%
Kass vs. Whoosh: Kass 50%, Whoosh 50%
Spencer vs. Whoosh: Spencer 55%, Whoosh 45%

Potential Juror Kass

Survivor Kass

This is not happening.  But just for fun let's see how she would vote.  She's been on the brains tribe with Spencer and she seems to get along with him the best.  So one would think that her vote would go to him, but she is chaos Kass/Kasstastrophe/Kasstrator/Krass finger flipper, so there is no telling what she will do.  She may vote for Stony for playing the most aggressive game even though she called him the cult leader she would love to kill, and the mafia don that she doesn't like.  But then she went and kept him in there, so who knows what she's thinking.

Spencer vs. Stony: Spencer 60%, Stony 40%
Spencer vs. Whoosh: Spencer 80%, Whoosh 20%
Stony vs. Whoosh: Whoosh 75%, Stony 25%

The Final Vote

So what does this all mean?  We'll take the various finalist combinations and see who wins in every scenario.  The finalist combinations that are most likely to happen (based on scenarios at the top of this post) are at the top of the list.

Kass vs. Spencer (22.92%)

Spencer: 7 votes
Kass: 2 votes

Kass vs. Stony (20.83%)

Stony: 5 votes
Kass: 4 votes

Kass vs. Whoosh (18.75%)

Whoosh: 5 votes
Kass: 4 votes

Spencer vs. Stony (14.58%)

Spencer: 6 votes
Stony: 3 votes

Spencer vs. Whoosh (12.50%)

Spencer: 8 votes
Whoosh: 1 vote

Stony vs. Whoosh (10.42%)

Stony: 6 votes
Whoosh: 3 votes


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59 comments

Profile photo of The Letter YThe Letter Y
May 21st, 2014  2:19 PM

Kass kan’t win. “There’s no ‘Y’ in fighting!”


Profile photo of SarcastiteSarcastite
May 21st, 2014  2:28 PM

Spencer wins in three out of six scenarios. Go team SPENCER!!!!!

Also, if it’s Stony and Kasstration at the end, Morgan is going to commit suicide.


Profile photo of LelandLeland
May 21st, 2014  2:35 PM

Only one new gif for this? I’m so disappointed.


Profile photo of Red StarRed Star
May 21st, 2014  3:12 PM

Hm, according to this, even though Kass is definitely making it to final two, her best bet is against Woo or Tony, and even then she loses by a vote.


    Profile photo of Otto BlottoOtto Blotto
    May 21st, 2014  5:55 PM

    I’m not buying that Tony loses to Spencer. No way is that happening. Spencer himself said he would vote for Tony, and the rest of the jury should take him up on it.


Profile photo of AsFarAsImConcernedNelliesStillFantasticAsFarAsImConcernedNelliesStillFantastic
May 21st, 2014  3:34 PM

No way Kass loses to Whoosh. I demand a recount!


Profile photo of Schroedinger's GlassSchroedinger's Glass
May 21st, 2014  4:10 PM

Where’s the analysis for fan favorite?


Profile photo of MissAdviceMissAdvice
May 21st, 2014  4:24 PM

That maze is going to require speed and endurance which helps Spence and Woo. Woo will definitely mess up at the cogs though. So if Spence gets through, the maze is his.


Profile photo of Otto BlottoOtto Blotto
May 21st, 2014  5:58 PM

This whole analysis presumes that the people on the island are rational. Have you even been watching this season?


Profile photo of randomlettersrandomletters
May 21st, 2014  6:09 PM

Are you going to be liveblogging this?


Profile photo of WilltheDillWilltheDill
May 21st, 2014  6:27 PM

#survivorstatistics, lol


Profile photo of Sultry SultanaSultry Sultana
May 21st, 2014  7:28 PM

What does Tony have left to swear on? That’s what I want to know?


Profile photo of Mr. ObviousMr. Obvious
May 21st, 2014  9:29 PM

Your least likely scenario is the one that played out. Fail, fail, fail.


Profile photo of ufsoh
May 23rd, 2014  1:16 PM

Nice probabilities prediction.

The only scenario where Kass would not get into final 2 happened.

Probably one out of 2 scenarios where Tony would make final 2 (the other being if Kass wins and somehow brings Tony). So Tony did make the doubly smart choice of voting out Spencer at f4.

The only problem is that Spencer’s chances are way amplified. He has not pretended to be a goat, or burnt bridges. So the only way for him to get to f2 is if he goes on an immunity run all the way. The other three have a chance of bringing each other along. No one will bring him along.